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Jailing Barclays bankers won’t save us from another financial crash | Joris Luyendijk

Nine years after the global economy almost imploded, bankers are finally in the dock. But we are still at great risk of a banking calamity

If you had told people in the City at the height of the financial crash in 2008 that it would take almost nine years for the first top bankers to face prosecution, few would have believed you. If you had then said that this first prosecution would relate to suspected fraud over one bank’s supposed attempt to avoid nationalisation – rather than the crash itself – the bankers involved in the crisis would have laughed in disbelief: surely, they aren’t going to let us get away with that?

Related: Senior Barclays bankers charged with fraud over credit crunch fundraising

There was too little political capital and almost no political will to break up the banks and make them simple again

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Markets drop despite French GDP upgrade and strong Eurozone data — as it happened

All the day’s economic and financial news, including new GDP figures from France, and a healthcheck on eurozone companies

That’s all for today, and this week

A quick reminder of the key points.

Related: London could lose out as ECB seeks control of euro clearing after Brexit

The FTSE 100 has now fallen for three weeks in a row; that’s the worst run since the Brexit vote, points out Tara Cunningham in the Daily Telegraph tonight.

David Madden of CMC Markets says growth fears weighed on the markets today, despite French GDP being revised up early this morning:

Stock markets have fallen yet again as the disinflation fear is still doing the rounds. Oil may have recouped some of its losses today but the commodity has dropped a considerable amount since the start of the year and dealers are worried take it will put downward pressure on inflation. The cost of living in the eurozone and the US is softening already, and when you factor the recent losses in the oil market its points to a continuation of weaker inflation.

Traders are anxious it could turn into weaker growth rates, and the high hopes that they had for 2017 may not be met.

After another subdued day, the FTSE 100 has closed down 15.16 points at 7424.

Worries over disinflation, following the oil price slump this week, weighed on shares.

European Closing Prices:#FTSE 7424.13 -0.20%#DAX 12733.41 -0.47%#CAC 5266.12 -0.30%#MIB 20833.88 -0.46%#IBEX 10630.8 -0.74%

FTSE closes down 0.20% at 7,424.13. BAE, Smurfit & Mediclinic -2%. Glencore & Anglo -1%. ITV & Fresnillo +3%. Old Mutual +2%. #UKshares

Here’s proof that the London stock market has underperformed since the Brexit vote, when measured in US dollars:

1 year on and you REALLY lost out if you invested in the FTSE 100 #Brexit pic.twitter.com/fyiXgKuj1y

If you invested £1000 in the FTSE 100 one year ago you would have £1173. If you invested the same in the DAX you would have £1432. #Brexit

Back in Greece, protests are set to intensify over the weekend as unions step up calls on Athens’ leftist-led government to grant better employment rights – not least extension of short term contracts that could say protestors put up to 10,000 out of work.

Announcing that walkouts by rubbish collectors and other municipal workers would continue until Monday, Nikos Trakas, who heads the union representing municipal employees, said the government couldn’t hide behind legal argument in its refusal to put contract workers, now facing joblessness, in permanent positions.

“‘We are talking about ten thousand people and if they leave, local government in its entirety will dissolve.”

Just in: America’s private sector is slowing this month.

Factory activity across the US rose at its slowest rate in nine months, according to data firm Markit.

Markit: US private sector output growth slows in June, but new orders rise at strongest pace for five months pic.twitter.com/YXPe3tNXYd

“The average expansion seen in the second quarter is down on that seen in the first three months of the year, indicating a slowing in the underlying pace of economic growth.

While official GDP data are expected to turn higher in the second quarter after an especially weak start to the year (our recent GDP tracker based on various official and survey data points to 3.0% growth), the relatively subdued PMI readings suggest there are some downside risks to the extent to which GDP will rebound.

Flash #US #PMI signals slowdown in private sector growth despite new orders rising at 5-month high. https://t.co/v5IUAs0Ndb pic.twitter.com/lkZmrAYflh

Back in the UK, the Serious Fraud Office has closed a probe into whether the Bank of England broke the law during the financial crisis.

After a two-year investigation, the SFO has concluded there is “no evidence of criminality” related to the emerging lending measures that the BoE took, to prevent the financial markets seizing up.

Surprise inflation data from Canada have sent the Canadian dollar sliding.

#CAD plunges after #Canada #inflation drops to 1.3% below street 1.5%, easing pressure from #BankofCanada to raise rates. #forex #trading pic.twitter.com/AVowFxYQT4

“Taking back control” was a key message for the campaign to leave the EU last year.

And today, the European Central Bank has launched a new bid to take control of the euro clearing market, currently centred in London.

This tweet may sound dull, but it’s the @ECB definitively attempting to take € clearing away from London. Or at least control it if it can’t https://t.co/3Q1yEilqbP

London is facing renewed pressure over its dominance of the €1tn (£880bn) a day euro clearing market after the European Central Bank set out proposals aimed at giving it more oversight of the lucrative business.

The move by the Frankfurt-based ECB – the central bank for the 19 countries using the euro – follows a report by the European commission which called for the EU to have more powers over clearing of financial products denominated in euros after Brexit.

Meanwhile, the Greek government has dispatched two top ministers abroad on an investment drive.

Just in: the UK public’s inflation expectations have risen slightly, as the Bank of England argues over whether to raise interest rates or not.

The public now expect inflation to average 3.1% in the long term, up from 3.0% a month ago.

Citi/Yougov survey shows that Inflation expectations are on the rise in the UK.

Mark Carney last week “”Inflation pressures are subdued”” pic.twitter.com/3EJLv5FZJY

“Expectations are close to long-run averages, but strong upward momentum that would call for urgent monetary tightening is absent in our view”

The @bankofengland is too big, distracted and scared to hike, according to Kristin Forbes https://t.co/02O4NwPv9q via @markets pic.twitter.com/VwCmLBse2U

The price of copper has jumped to a two-month high, helped by this morning’s strong eurozone data.

One tonne of copper jumped by 1.5% to $5,827, the highest level since early April.

“Positive sentiment around China and a rise in manufacturing PMIs out of Europe are supporting base metals prices.”

Attention, eurozone crisis watchers. The BBC World Service covering the Greek debt crisis, looking at this month’s bailout and the long-term cost of austerity

It includes contributions from our Athens correspondent Helena Smith, and is being streamed here:

Greece has been through dark economic times over the past decade. Last week a European Union loan of 8.5bn Euros enabled Greece to meet its latest debt payments. The IMF says this deal will help Greece stand on its own feet again over the course of the next year. But after the years of austerity and hardship, do the Greek people believe this will do anything to improve their lives?

For Newshour Extra this week, Owen Bennett Jones is in Athens to discuss the consequences of living with long-term austerity and the prognosis for economic recovery.

Back on the Brexit anniversary….analysts are pointing out that there’s a notable shift between the fortunes of UK-focused companies, and those with an international outlook.

Those multinational firms have enjoyed a real surge in their value, up 28% in the last year, as the weak pound boosts the value of their overseas earning.

“The KPMG Non-UK 50, which represents the largest companies with more than 70% of their market outside the UK, is up a remarkable 28% since the EU referendum – significantly outperforming the world’s largest indices, while the FTSE 100 climbed 17% over the same period.

In contrast, the KPMG UK50, which represents the largest FTSE companies with over 70% of their market in the UK, is down 5%. Put in pounds and pence, this equates to a £330 billion rise in the value of the KPMG Non-UK50 and a £19 billion loss for their domestic equivalent.

A year since Brexit: #FTSE winners and losers pic.twitter.com/TwnI2E5GRG

Three stocks really driving the FTSE – HSBC, BATS and Shell make up fifth of the index by weighting and behind over a third of gains pic.twitter.com/UjN45XNIj4

Over in parliament, a delicious battle is brewing over the top job on the Treasury select committee, one of the most powerful oversight roles in Westminster.

Just to confirm I am standing to succeed the indefatigable Andrew Tyrie as Chairman of the House of Commons Treasury Select Committee

Some Labour MPs are organising to thwart Mr Rees-Mogg, although they have not yet decided who to support. “The idea is to simply stop Mogg,” said one Labour MP. “It almost doesn’t matter who the candidate is, we just don’t want him.”

They argue that his role at Somerset Capital Management could pose a conflict of interests. Many also believe that as an ardent supporter of the UK leaving the EU he may not pursue sufficient scrutiny of the government’s Brexit plans.

I enjoyed serving on TSC in 15-17. Have a lot of respect for other candidates, but for me Nicky is the stand out choice and will get my vote https://t.co/40XCUKBHFI

Sterling is marking the first anniversary of the EU referendum with a small rally.

The pound is up half a cent against the US dollar at $1.2728. That means it’s still worth 14% less than before the Brexit vote, after a year of heightened volatility.

“Sterling’s devaluation in response to the shock UK referendum result has been the most significant market event in recent years.

It has yet to materially recover from its post-referendum low and now remains vulnerable to even more political and economic uncertainty.

Taking back control, one year on pic.twitter.com/phEWWefMYh

On the plus side, sterling has sure shown the Congolese franc and Uzbekistani soum a thing or two over the last year. cc @FMR_Brussels pic.twitter.com/zkeFjPlQ3Q

A year on, the #FTSE100 has gained 16.86% since the #EU referendum, while the pound is down 14% against US dollar #GBP #BrexitAnniversary pic.twitter.com/AmPuBwsFpt

Eurozone stock markets are all down this morning, as the PMIs fail to spark much enthusiasm in the City.

The FTSE 100 has shed 30 points, or 0.4%, to 7410.

It’s been a pretty bleak week for the UK index, shedding around 150 points from Tuesday’s intraday peak as the latest oil crisis drew focus from the sterling-sapping/FTSE-boosting political uncertainty that was the main market driver in the previous fortnight.

Here’s Julien Lafargue, european equities strategist at the J.P. Morgan Private Bank, on today’s eurozone PMI report:

The macroeconomic momentum appears to have eased somewhat in June, in particular in the Services sector. In light of the sharp improvement we have witnessed in the past 9 months, this pause is not really a surprise and, in our opinion, should not be interpreted as an indication that the economy is about to roll over.

Activity in the Eurozone remains at very healthy levels and consumer confidence is at its highest level in 16 years. In addition, despite the recent drop in commodity prices, inflation dynamics remain supported by a large backlog and supplier delivery delays worsening to the greatest extent for just over six years.

The eurozone’s private sector has recorded its strongest quarterly growth since the debt crisis began, although growth has slowed a little this month.

That’s the upshot from Markit’s monthly healthcheck on factories and service sector firms across the euro area.

Although the rate of growth waned to a five-month low, high order book inflows and elevated levels of business confidence meant job creation remained one of the strongest recorded over the past decade as firms continued to expand capacity to meet rising demand.

Price pressures eased, however, largely reflecting lower global commodity prices.

Flash #Eurozone PMI at 5-month low of 55.7 (56.8 in May) but Q2 ave best for 6 years => signals +0.7% GDP https://t.co/VNCaJFgY2e pic.twitter.com/0mIvpPuYm5

The upturn is also broad-based, with the surveys signalling an acceleration of GDP growth in both France and Germany in the second quarter, as well as across the rest of the region as a whole, albeit with some loss of momentum seen across the board in June.

“Job creation continued to run at one of the highest rates seen over the past decade as firms expanded capacity to meet demand. Factory jobs growth remained particularly buoyant, thanks in part to production requirements surging higher on the back of rising exports.

German PMI Manufacturing beats and holds steady, Services misses and declines, not too dissimilar to France earlier

Germany ‘flash PMI’ is just out, and it shows that private sector growth in the eurozone’s largest economy is slowing a little.

The German composite PMI has dropped to a four-month low of 56.1 this month.

“The latest data signalled a growing performance gap between manufacturing and services, however.

The goods-producing sector continued to outperform, with the headline PMI little-changed from May’s 73-month record. Although growth of manufacturing output, exports and jobs all eased slightly since May, expansions in backlogs and total new orders gathered pace and supply bottlenecks intensified.

Another boost for France! French companies are creating jobs at the fastest rate since the financial crisis.

That’s according to data firm Markit, whose ‘flash’ purchasing managers report for June, just released, shows that private sector employment has jumped at the fastest rate in almost 10 years.

Buoyed by strong client demand, private sector firms in France raised their staffing numbers for an eighth successive month in June. Furthermore, the rate of job creation was the most marked in just under ten years.

The increase was broad-based across both the manufacturing and service sectors.

“A particularly upbeat talking point highlighted in the latest data was the sharpest rise in employment for almost ten years.

This is welcome news for the newly elected government which has made reducing unemployment one of the main aims of its administration. The slowdown in the rate of accumulation in unfinished work poses a slight concern however, and may slow employment growth in the short-term.

French composite #PMI down, but employment up, manufacturing as well. Positive all in all pic.twitter.com/d6uJMYvis5

Howard Archer of EY Item Club is also impressed by France’s GDP:

très bon – now 0.5% q/q as business investment healthy !! #French Q1 #GDP #growth figures upgraded (again) https://t.co/ugYTtbKRnw via @FT

Bloomberg economist Maxime Sbaihi is encouraged by the upgraded French growth figures:

French GDP growth in Q1 revised up once again, to 0.5% from 0.4% previously and a preliminary 0.3%. Starting 2017 as strong as 2016 ended.

Newsflash: France’s economy grew faster than previously thought in the first three months of this year.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Today we’ll learn whether European companies are enjoying a blistering June, as data firm Markit releases its latest ‘flash’ purchasing managers indexes.

The National Audit Office said the contract sealed by ministers last September with EDF to construct the country’s first new atomic reactors in two decades would provide “uncertain strategic and economic benefits”.

Further, Brexit and Theresa May’s decision to quit an EU nuclear treaty could make the situation even worse, by triggering taxpayer compensation for EDF or a more generous deal for the French state-controlled company.

Related: Spending watchdog condemns ‘risky and expensive’ Hinkley Point

European stock indices set to open a touch weaker. #Crudeoil modestly higher on short side profit-taking. #FTSE called 10 points lower

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