MiB: The Return of Laurence Juber

What happens when Paul McCartney asks, “What are you doing for the next few years?” Guitarist Laurence Juber (better known as “LJ”) says he thought about for a nanosecond, before saying “I guess I am playing with you.” The musicologist, former Wings guitarist and Grammy-award winning composer with 25 albums to his name describes rehearsing with…

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10 Weekend Reads

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Colombia Pink Bourbon Los Cedrol coffee, grab a seat on a hanging chair, and get ready for our longer form weekend reads: • Harvey Wasn’t Just Bad Weather. It Was Bad City Planning (Bloomberg Businessweek) • Reckoning on Round Hill Road: Why hedge fund managers can’t give away a house in…

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Why economic forecasting has always been a flawed science

A BBC Radio 4 programme examines why experts often get predictions wrong – and meets the people who get them right

While accepting the Nobel prize for economics, Friedrich Hayek made an astonishing admission. Not only were economists unsure about their predictions, he noted, but their tendency to present their findings with the certainty of the language of science was misleading and “may have deplorable effects”.

This revelation, made about 40 years ago, is a crucial one and yet it has been largely forgotten or ignored. One of the most striking comments before the EU referendum was from Michael Gove. He claimed people in Britain had had enough of experts. This has since become something of a mantra, and polling does indeed suggest that most people place little trust in expert predictions and pronouncements.

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