General election 2017: IFS says Tories offering five years of austerity and Labour’s plans ‘would not work’ – politics live

As election campaign resumes, Labour leader to draw link between UK foreign policy and terror attacks, and criticise Tories over police cuts

You can read the text of Carl Emmerson’s opening remarks at the IFS briefing here (pdf).

You can watch the IFS briefing live here.

Carl Emmerson, the IFS deputy director, is speaking now.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies is about to publish its analysis of party election manifestos at a briefing in Westminster.

According to the summary sent out under embargo until 9am, their verdict on the Tory and Labour plans is highly critical.

Neither Conservatives nor Labour are properly spelling out consequences of their policy proposals.

The Conservatives have very few tax or spending commitments in their manifesto. Additional funding pledges for the NHS and schools are just confirming that spending would rise in a way broadly consistent with the March Budget. These plans imply at least another five years of austerity, with the continuation of planned welfare cuts and serious pressures on the public services including on the NHS. They could allow the deficit to shrink over time with no additional tax rises over the coming parliament. But getting to budget balance by the mid-2020s, their stated aim, would likely require more spending cuts or tax rises even beyond the end of the next parliament.

In his speech Jeremy Corbyn says: “Many experts, including professionals in our intelligence and security services, have pointed to the connections between wars our government has supported or fought in other countries and terrorism here at home.”

This is a reference to the evidence emerged after the Iraq war, partly in the Chilcot inquiry but also elsewhere, showing that Tony Blair was warned by the intelligence services that invading the country would increase the terrorist threats.

The JIC assessed that al-Qaida and associated groups continued to represent by far the greatest terrorist threat to western interests, and that threat would be heightened by military action against Iraq.

The JIC assessed that any collapse of the Iraqi regime would increase the risk of chemical and biological warfare technology or agents finding their way into the hands of terrorists, not necessarily al-Qaida.

Our involvement in Iraq radicalised a few among a generation of young people who saw [it] as an attack upon Islam.

For the record, here are the extracts from Jeremy Corbyn’s speech released in advance.

On fighting terror threats generally

This is my commitment to our country.

I want the solidarity, humanity and compassion that we have seen on the streets of Manchester this week to be the values that guide our government. There can be no love of country if there is neglect or disregard for its people.

To keep you and your family safe, our approach will involve change at home and change abroad.

At home, Labour will reverse the cuts to our emergency services and police. Once again in Manchester, they have proved to be the best of us.

We will also change what we do abroad. Many experts, including professionals in our intelligence and security services, have pointed to the connections between wars our government has supported or fought in other countries and terrorism here at home.

That assessment in no way reduces the guilt of those who attack our children. Those terrorists will forever be reviled and held to account for their actions.

This is what Ben Wallace, the security minister, said about the speech that Jeremy Corbyn is giving later today, extracts from which have been briefed in advance.

First of all, I think [Corbyn’s] timing is incredibly disappointing and crass given there is a live police operation … This is why his timing is also appalling, because I don’t think the substance of what he says is correct at all.

Q: Do you accept that the Iraq war contributed to this?

No, says Wallace. The person responsible was the terrorist.

Q: Jeremy Corbyn will criticise cuts to the police in a speech today. Some 19,000 police posts have gone. Have the cuts gone too far?

Wallace says Corbyn’s timing is “incredibly disappointing and crass”.

Q: Are companies like Facebook letting terrorists off the hook?

Wallace says the government thinks they can do more.

Q: NHS England have told trauma units to be on standby. Have they given specific information about threats?

Wallace says that is predominantly precautionary.

Sarah Montague is interviewing Ben Wallace.

Good morning. I’m taking over from Claire.

Ben Wallace, the security minister, is about to be interviewed on the Today programme.

Andrew Sparrow is now picking up the live blog.

A reminder: you can sign up here to receive our daily election briefing email, the Snap.

Today is what the Fair Funding for All Schools campaign is calling a national day of action against cuts in funding.

Caroline Lucas, the Green co-leader seeking re-election in Brighton Pavilion, will be speaking at one rally on her home turf this afternoon, and her party has also set out plans to boost school funding by £7bn each year by 2022.

The Tories’ plans for our schools will leave teachers stressed and stretched, and risk our children’s education. PTAs are already fundraising to pay for essential equipment like pens and glue sticks; the situation is getting desperate.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats will publish their manifesto today, with a focus on Brexit and what they will say is the need for a second referendum ahead of any deal that could “wreck the future for our children, our economy and our schools and hospitals”.

Leader Mark Williams – who was, until the dissolution, the party’s only Westminster MP in Wales – will launch the manifesto promising that voters should have the chance to reject any deal and instead stay within the EU.

Lord Carlile, the former independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, has been speaking on Radio 4’s Today programme about how authorities can deal with those suspected of having links to extremism.

He says it was a “grave mistake” for the coalition government to remove control orders.

There was a political resistance to imposing these orders on people who were reasonably suspected of being terrorists.

The use of Tpims has increased since the 2015 election from about zero to seven today.

It’s very easy to say we need more police … I do not believe the number of police officers is the central issue.

Barry Gardiner, the shadow international trade secretary, has been on Radio 4’s Today programme ahead of Jeremy Corbyn’s speech later this morning about the links between British foreign policy and terror attacks.

Gardiner says the Labour leader’s argument is a nuanced one:

There is no simple causal relationship … We need profoundly to reassess the ways in which there are linkages.

Libya is a country in which we intervened … what we did there was made a military intervention and then withdrew and that country has been in chaos.

The pattern that we’ve seen time and again has been one in which military intervention has gone in hard but then lost its way … Look back to Iraq, look back to Afghanistan … the stabilisation of a country is so important.

Absolutely clearly the responsibility for these atrocities is with those who have perpetrated them … but they use these things as an excuse.

These are people who simply want to destroy our way of life … There is no negotiating with these people.

Schools in England will face real-terms funding cuts for years to come if the Conservatives win the general election, according to analyses by two thinktanks. The figures show year-on-year falls over the coming parliamentary term despite a Conservative manifesto promise to redirect £1bn in additional funding to state schools by slashing free school meals for infants.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said school funding would fall by nearly 3% by 2021, even with the additional £1bn a year, after adjusting for inflation and a rise in students enrolled.

Related: Schools face years of funding cuts if Tories win election, say reports

Welcome back to the politics live blog as national campaigning restarts after a pause in the wake of the Manchester terror attack.

I’m Claire Phipps with what you need to know today, and the early news. Our live Manchester coverage continues here.

Good counter-terrorism is when you have close relationships between the policing and intelligence services. That is what we have … It’s also about making sure we get in early on radicalisation. But it’s not about those pure numbers on the street.

our foreign policy reduces rather than increases the threat to this country … Many experts, including professionals in our intelligence and security services, have pointed to the connections between wars our government has supported or fought in other countries and terrorism here at home.

That assessment in no way reduces the guilt of those who attack our children. Those terrorists will forever be reviled and held to account for their actions. But an informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response that will protect the security of our people that fights rather than fuels terrorism.

Exc: Times/YouGov poll would give the Tories an overall maj of TWO (down from working maj of 17) if swing repeated uniformly across Britain

It would have been unedifying, to say the least, to watch Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn squabble as the body count was still rising – but they must now join a conversation that has already started without them. Even if we consider it opportune to hold our tongue for some amount of time, there’s no way to pause our brain’s ability to form opinions. There’s fierce disagreement about both the cause of this sort of violence and the most effective policy responses … How can we expect these events not to dominate election discourse for the remainder of the campaign period?

A conventional interpretation will settle about this terrible week, in which Mrs May was saved from her botched manifesto by the need to be prime ministerial in response to an atrocity. The temporary suspension of campaigning, it will be said, came at the ideal moment for her and changed the subject from social care to security, on which she is strong and Mr Corbyn is weak.

It’s always a mistake to read the election up so close, though. Almost all elections are won by fundamental questions determined long in advance of the campaign itself. When Jo Cox was murdered during the European referendum campaign there were confident predictions about its impact. In the event, there was no impact. The campaign had been going on for 40 years.

. @jreynoldsMP got his first ever tattoo done to raise money for the victims of the Manchester bombing, then got caught by his mum:

Continue reading…