There is a disconnect between what indicators say and what workers feel. A hard look at the numbers shows all isn’t well
Election years produce odd spectacles, like presidential candidates talking about their penises, or normal people talking about Labor Department jobs reports. In saner times, a release of nonfarm payroll data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would attract the level of attention appropriate for, well, nonfarm payroll data from the BLS. But these are not sane times.
With an election season defined by its unpredictability, we can take some comfort in the few predictive rules we have left, like James Carville’s old “the economy, stupid” maxim. Research and common sense indicate a strong economy is good for incumbent parties, so a good jobs report should mean a Democratic victory in November.