Mark Carney’s blue-sky take on interest rates misses clouds on the horizon

The Bank of England governor believes the UK economy is well insulated from global shocks, but his forecasts could easily go awry

Forget the financial turmoil in China and around the world. When it comes to the UK, Mark Carney would have us believe he remains in charge.

The Bank of England governor gave a robust defence on Saturday of his position as the UK’s most influential policymaker. That means base interest rates are still going up, perhaps in February or thereabouts, and will be on course to touch 2% by 2018.

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What will China’s Black Monday mean for the UK?

As jittery investors brace for more shockwaves after last week’s rout on world markets, we look at the impact, from property to petrol prices

This was supposed to be the year when normality returned to the global economic landscape. Growth was looking more established and the legacy of the financial crisis was dimming. The US central bank and the Bank of England looked poised to affirm the recovery by finally starting to raise interest rates after keeping them for years at emergency levels. Even the eurozone, having come close to unravelling once again, by this month appeared to have put the latest Greek crisis behind it.

All that changed on China’s “Black Monday” last week, when the stock market sell-off that had been rumbling along for weeks turned into a rout. A near 9% fall in the main Shanghai Composite index, its biggest one-day drop since 2007, reverberated around global markets, sending other bourses from Sydney to Wall Street tumbling. In London, dramatic moves on the FTSE 100 were reminiscent of the worst days of the last crash.

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Young face a bleak future in UK’s flawed jobs market

More than half of Britain’s graduates are in non-graduate jobs. Apprentice pay is pitifully low. The outlook is becoming truly disheartening

As the soggy end of summer makes way for autumn and a new academic year, it is traditionally a time for fresh starts and new hopes. Except with rising student debts and pitiful pay for apprentices, September has become a time for brave leaps in the dark.

When this year’s cohort of young adults embark on their studies, many will carry with them stories of older friends and siblings, long since graduated but still searching for decent work. Anecdotal evidence of graduates working in bars and as receptionists is well-known. Now it has been backed up by a damning report on the state of Britain’s jobs market. Researchers found that due to a mismatch between the number of university leavers and the jobs appropriate to their skills, more than half of the UK’s graduates are in non-graduate jobs. This is one of the highest rates in Europe.

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Central banks can’t save the markets from a crash. They shouldn’t even try

Alarming data from China was met with a soothing hint about monetary policy. But treasuries cannot keep pumping cheap credit into a series of asset bubbles

Like children clinging to their parents, stock market traders turned to their central banks last week as they sought protection from the frightening economic figures coming out of China. Surely, they asked, the central banks would ward off the approaching bogeymen, as they had so many times since the 2008 crash.

The US Federal Reserve came up with the goods. William Dudley, president of the bank’s New York branch, hinted that the interest rate rise many had expected next month was likely to be delayed.

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101 Best Wineries in America

# 101 Trione Vineyards and Winery, Geyserville, Calif.

# 100 Dolin Malibu Estate Vineyard, Malibu, Calif.

# 99 Hope Family Wines, Paso Robles, Calif.

# 98 Ste. Chapelle Winery, Caldwell, Idaho

# 97 Broc Cellars, Berkeley, Calif.

# 96 Cornerstone Cellars, Yountville, Calif.

# 95 Gruet Winery, Albuquerque, New Mexico

# 94 MacPhaill Family Wines, Healdsburg, Calif.

# 93 Shinn Estate Vineyard and Farmhouse, Mattituck, N.Y.

# 92 Bokisch Vineyards, Lodi, Calif.

# 91 Allis Ranch Winery, Sedalia, Colorado

# 90 Seven Hills Winery, Walla Walla, Wash.

# 89 Frick Winery, Geyserville, Calif.

# 88 Hermann J. Wiemer Winery, Dundee, N.Y.

# 87 Neyers Vineyards, St. Helena, Calif.

# 86 The Ojai Vineyard , Oak View, Calif.

# 85 Va La Vineyards, Avondale, Pennsylvania

# 84 Stony Hill Vineyard, St Helena, Calif.

# 83 McPherson Cellars Winery, Lubbock, Texas

# 82 Favia Wines, Napa, Calif.

# 81 Keplinger Wines, Napa, Calif.

# 80 Gramercy Cellars, Walla Walla, Wash.

# 79 Freemark Abbey Winery, Napa Valley, Calif.

# 78 Peay, Cloverdale, Calif.

# 77 Balletto Vineyards & Winery, Santa Rosa, Calif.

# 76 Channing Daughters Winery, Bridgehampton, N.Y.

# 75 Inwood Estates Vineyards, Florence, Texas

# 74 Chehalem Winery, Newberg, Ore.

# 73 Pedroncelli, Geyserville, Calif.

# 72 Bergström Winery, Newberg, Ore.

# 71 Truchard Vineyards, Napa Valley, Calif.

# 70 Sandhi Wines, Santa Barbara, Calif.

# 69 Robert Mondavi, Napa, Calif.

# 68 Iron Horse Vineyards, Sebastopol, Calif.

# 67 Jaffurs Wine Cellars, Santa Barbara, Calif.

# 66 Beckmen Vineyards, Los Olivos, Calif.

# 65 Keuka Lake Vineyards, Hammondsport, N.Y.

# 64 Thomas Fogarty Winery and Vineyards, Woodside, Calif.

# 63 Black Ankle Vineyards, Mount Airy, Maryland

# 62 Rochioli Vineyards and Winery, Healdsburg, Calif.

# 61 Foxen Winery, Santa Ynez Valley, Calif.

# 60 Dr. Konstantin Frank Vinifera Wine Cellars, Hammondsport, N.Y.

# 59 Andrew Murray Vineyards, Los Olivos, Calif.

# 58 Swanson Vineyards, Napa Valley, Calif.

# 57 Abeja, Walla Walla, Wash.

# 56 Red Newt Cellars, Hector, N.Y.

# 55 Tensley Wines, Santa Barbara County, Calif.

# 54 Mount Eden, Saratoga, Calif.

# 53 Barbourville Vineyards, Barboursville, Virginia

# 52 Charles Smith Wines, Walla Walla, Wash.

# 51 Saxum , Paso Robles, Calif.

# 50 Chateau Grand Traverse, Traverse City, Michigan

# 49 Ken Wright Cellars, Carlton, Ore.

# 48 Peachy Canyon Winery, Paso Robles, Calif.

# 47 Boundary Breaks Vineyard, Lodi, N.Y.

# 46 St. Supery Vineyards and Winery, Rutherford, Calif.

# 45 Soliste, Petaluma, Calif.

# 44 Quilceda Creek, Snohomish, Wash.

# 43 Evening Land Vineyards , Dundee, Ore.

# 42 SpottsWoode Winery, St Helena, Calif.

# 41 Elk Cove Vineyards, Willamette Valley, Ore.

# 40 Hanzell Vineyards, Sonoma, Calif.

# 39 Wind Gap Wines, Sebastopol, Calif.

# 38 The Eyrie Vineyards, McMinville, Ore.

# 37 Arnot-Roberts, Healdsburg, Calif.

# 36 Hirsch Vineyard, Cazadero, Calif.

# 35 Acorn Winery, Healdsburg, Calif.

# 34 Diamond Creek Vineyards, Calistoga, Calif.

# 33 Domaine de la Cote, Lompoc, Calif.

# 32 DeLille Cellars, Woodinville, Wash.

# 31 Talley Vineyards, Arroyo Grande, Calif.

# 30 Patz & Hall, Sonoma, Calif.

# 29 Ponzi Vineyards, Sherwood, Ore.

# 28 Copain Wines, Healdsburg, Calif.

# 27 Qupé Winery, Los Olivos, Calif.

# 26 Navarro Vineyards and Winery, Philo, Calif.

# 25 Whetstone Wine Cellars, Napa, Calif.

# 24 Mayacamas Vineyards, Mount Veeder, Calif.

# 23 Massican Winery, Napa Valley, Calif.

# 22 Andrew Will Winery, Vashon, Wash.

# 21 Chateau Montelena Winery, Calistoga, Calif.

# 20 Schramsberg Vineyards, Calistoga, Calif.

# 19 Duckhorn Vineyards, St Helena, Calif.

# 18 Bonny Doon Vineyard, Santa Cruz, Calif.

# 17 Corison Winery, Napa Valley, Calif.

# 16 Shafer Vineyards, Napa Valley, Calif.

# 15 Linden Vineyards, Linden, Virginia

# 14 Domaine Drouhin Oregon, Dayton, Ore.

# 13 Matthiasson Winery, Napa Valley, Calif.

# 12 Caymus Vineyards, Rutherford, Calif.

# 11 Littorai, Sebastopol, Calif.

# 10 Robert Sinskey Vineyards, Napa, Calif.

# 9 Leonetti Cellar, Walla Walla, Wash.

# 8 Smith-Madrone Vineyards and Winery, St. Helena, Calif.

# 7 Heitz Cellars, St Helena, Calif.

# 6 Dunn Vineyards, Angwin, Calif.

# 5 Woodward Canyon Winery, Lowden, Wash.

# 4 Calera Wine, Mt Harlan, Calif.

# 3 Au Bon Climat Winery, Santa Barbara, Calif.

# 2 Ridge Vineyards, Cupertino, Calif.

# 1 Tablas Creek Vineyard, Paso Robles, Calif.

Babies born in a recession ‘have worse health’

Icelandic study finds link between financial crisis and lower than average birth weights

Economic woes can be as damaging to a baby’s health as smoking or drinking during pregnancy, according to the first study to establish a causal link between foetal exposure to financial stress in an advanced economy and the health of babies at birth.

Research presented at this month’s annual congress of the European Economic Association in Mannheim by Arna Vardardottir, assistant professor at the department of economics at Copenhagen Business School, tracks the unexpected collapse of Iceland’s economy in 2008.

The scale of Iceland’s collapse, its speed and the fact that it had not been foreseen meant its impact was acute

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Fed vice-chairman hints at interest rate increase in speech on inflation

‘The door is definitely open’ to a September rate increase, a senior economist said in response to Stanley Fischer saying factors that kept inflation down are fading

Federal Reserve vice-chairman Stanley Fischer left the door open Saturday for a Fed rate increase in September, saying the factors that have kept inflation below the central bank’s target level have likely begun to fade.

Fischer said there’s “good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further”. He said, for example, that some effects of a stronger dollar and a plunge in oil prices – key factors in holding down inflation – have already started to diminish.

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